The indicator lab — what survives verification, and what we threw out

Rank the perp universe by trailing 30-day circulating-supply growth, long the slowest-diluting third and short the fastest, equal weight per leg and legs equal to each other. The idea came from reading what the durable Hyperliquid vaults actually hold rather than from a parameter sweep: they say plainly that they short high-emission, high-FDV names and hold the majors. Over 363 days on 33 perps the basket returned +25.6% at a -7.6% maximum drawdown while holding that same basket returned -68.0%, and it stayed positive on a held-out window it had never seen.

Costs charged: 0.10% per side plus real funding. 33 coins, weekly rebalance.

What we would do with it: Run it in its neutral form and in small size. It shows that slowly diluting coins beat quickly diluting ones, and that survives both the majors-versus-alts control and the momentum control. It has only been tested on one falling market over twelve months, so size it such that a sign flip in a bull cycle would not hurt.

Tested: 2026-07 · v1.0.0 · 33 liquid perps, 2025-07-28..2026-07-25, daily rebalance grid with a held-out Jun-Jul 2026 window

Run the Supply Dilution basket: long the slowest-diluting third, short the fastest, dollar neutral, rebalanced weekly: but hold it only while BTC trades below its 140-day average, and sit flat otherwise. Over 2025-07-28 to 2026-07-25 that returned +35.8% against +25.6% for running it continuously, at a -5.3% maximum drawdown against -7.6%, while being in the market 57% of the days. The improvement is real and its cause is not flattering to the factor: measured net dollar exposure is exactly zero, but realised beta is -0.046 and correlation to the universe is -0.25, so the book quietly carries short beta. The gate simply stops paying for that beta while the market rises.

The same factor as above plus the SMA140 rule. Two fitted parameters now sit on a twelve-month sample.

What we would do with it: Use it only while understanding where the extra return comes from. At zero net dollar exposure the basket still leans short: it loses 7.8bp on up-market days and makes 20.1bp on down days. The gate simply switches it off while the market rises. That is a market-timing overlay, not better coin selection, and the cleaner fix is to size the legs to equal beta.

Tested: 2026-07 · v1.0 · 33 binance_futures perps, 2025-07-28..2026-07-25, weekly rebalance, taker 0.10% per side plus real funding, gate from BTC daily close versus its trailing 140-day average

Hold BTC and ETH equal-weight while the daily close is above its 140-day average, otherwise sit in cash, and trade only on the crossing. The rule comes from the published CORE arm of an external spot system and is specific enough to rebuild, so it was rebuilt on our own archive rather than taken on trust. Over 2020-2026 it returned 12.9x against 9.5x for holding the same pair, at a 41% maximum drawdown against 76%. The drawdown number is the finding; the return number is mostly one year.

BTC and ETH on daily candles, 30bp per side on every crossing. The 140 was checked against every length from 60 to 250: 27 of 39 work, so the number is not fitted.

What we would do with it: This is a way to cut drawdown, not to earn more. The rule loses to holding in every rising year and wins in every falling one; over six years it halved the drawdown. The low score describes the yardstick rather than the rule: the lab formula rates prediction of returns, while all this rule claims is sitting out losses.

Tested: 2026-07 · v1.0 · BTC and ETH daily closes rebuilt from the local 1h spot archive, 2020-05-01..2026-07-26, 2,278 bars, 30bp per side charged on every crossing, SMA lengths 60-250 swept

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The screener ranks coins by RSI and 24-hour change and prints a long board and a short board. Whether that ranking says anything about what comes next had never been measured, so the share of the basket the board would list long was scored the same way every Lab indicator is: against 30-day forward BTC returns over 2,132 days and three regimes. It scores 27, weak. The pooled correlation is +0.03, the regimes disagree on sign, and the conditional separation points the wrong way.

2,132 days. The reconstruction is approximate: the live board ranks the full TradingView universe while the archive holds 20 liquid coins.

What we would do with it: Do not read the board as a forecast, on this evidence it is not one. The separation even runs against its own logic: when more coins sit above RSI 50, what follows is slightly worse. As a filter of what currently passes liquidity and momentum screens the board stays useful, and that is its actual job.

Tested: 2026-07 · v1.0 · 20-coin liquid basket reconstructed from the spot archive, 2,132 daily observations with overlapping 30d-forward windows across three regimes

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Breakouts on trade.xyz markets: equities, indices, commodities, FX — with a regime gate built from the universe's own breadth, a relative-strength check, a toxicity veto, and funding treated as a cost filter. There is no backtest and there cannot be one soon: the longest history on the venue is 292 daily bars.

None of the six figures the report standard requires can be computed on this much history. The product exists so the rule is written down and falsifiable before a sample exists, not as a substitute for measuring it.

Tested: 2026-07 · v0.1.0 · не тестировано — на площадке максимум 292 дневных бара (XYZ100), медиана 129, рынков с историей от года ноль

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A bar closes above the highest high of the prior 100 days, you buy the next open, and a stop trailing 8 daily ATRs below the highest close since entry takes you out. No ranking, no profit target, no moving averages. The rule as specified fails its own placebo and loses money after February 2022. One of the thirty variants tested clears both nulls: the daily bar with a breakout-quality filter that requires the breaking bar to clear one bar-level ATR(14) and leave a fair value gap.

Thirty cells: three decision bars crossed with ten rule variants, one engine and one universe. Nulls were run at 200 seeds on four rows; the rest say so.

What we would do with it: Do not trade it. The base rule fails its placebo and has lost money since 2022; the surviving variant was picked as the best of thirty and has to be confirmed on a fresh window. All thirty variants are stored as specs with Binance spot execution profiles, so the confirmation can be checked with the same file a bot would trade from.

Tested: 2026-08 · v0.1.0 · 594 Binance spot instruments including delisted ones, 2017-08 to 2026-08, 15-minute bars aggregated to the decision bar, 0.10% taker plus 0.05% slippage per side

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Entry on a 20-day channel breakout taken only when volatility is expanding (7-day ATR above the 50-day), exit when a bar closes below the lowest low of the prior 10 days. The gate lifts sharpe 1.31 to 1.42. The highest total among the finalists (+1584%) - paid for with the deepest drawdown of the three (-32.6%).

Tested: 2026-08 · v0.1.0 · 10 Binance perp majors on daily bars, 2020-09 to 2026-08, 0.10% taker plus 0.05% slippage per side, equal 1/10 sleeves; volatility-expansion gate is part of the rule

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Entry on a 55-day channel breakout confirmed by volume (trigger bar's volume above 1.5x its 20-day median - the Effort gate), exit when a bar closes below the lowest low of the prior 10 days. The channel exit is the only non-time exit that survived every control; the volume gate lifts sharpe 1.36 to 1.42 and cuts the drawdown from -33% to -24%.

Tested: 2026-08 · v0.1.0 · 10 Binance perp majors on daily bars, 2020-09 to 2026-08, 0.10% taker plus 0.05% slippage per side, equal 1/10 sleeves; volume gate is part of the rule

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A bar closes above the highest high of the prior 20 days, you buy the next open and sell at the close of the 10th bar after entry. No stop: the exit laboratory measured 14 exit rules against per-rule random-entry nulls on 560 runs, and every stop-based rule cut the entry's edge before it showed. The top of the replication table is held entirely by time exits. This rule cleared the 95th percentile of its own null on 7 of 10 markets.

Tested: 2026-08 · v0.1.0 · 10 Binance perp majors on daily bars, 2020-09 to 2026-08, common calendar from AVAX's listing, 0.10% taker plus 0.05% slippage per side, no overlapping trades, equal 1/10 capital sleeves

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A bar closes above the highest high of the prior 55 days, you buy the next open and sell at the close of the 10th bar. The slower channel beats the published 20-day variant on both sharpe (1.59 vs 1.51) and drawdown (-21% vs -30%) with half the trades. The best phase goes in the headline per the desk's rule: 88% of the log return accrues in bull phases; in bears it sits near zero without losing.

Tested: 2026-08 · v0.1.0 · 10 Binance perp majors on daily bars, 2020-09 to 2026-08, 0.10% taker plus 0.05% slippage per side, equal 1/10 sleeves, one position per symbol; floor measured on the на дату решения top-30 basket

Tactical short-side index that targets overheated names. Exploits elevated funding-rate z-score by entering short on names paying abnormally high funding to capture mean-reversion, supplemented by earning the high funding carry. Regime-dependent (only active in risk-off/bear windows; flat in risk-on).

The regime breakdown was not re-run in the lab framework, so there is no comparable score.

What we would do with it: Do not switch it on without a falling-regime gate. In a bull market it is destroyed. That is not a caveat but a measured −54.2% a year over 2023-2024.

Tested: 2026-07 · v1.0 · full 2020-2026 funding archive, split by regime window

Built by measuring what the Growi HF vault actually does rather than what it says. Its description claims mean reversion; joining 79,981 of its Open fills to market hourly bars says the opposite: at the hour of a long entry price had already risen 0.32% over the prior hour and 2.78% over the prior day and sat 1.93% above its own 24h mean, against an unconditional background of -0.006% and a 50/50 split. That is a momentum entry. Rebuilt under our constraints (long only, no leverage, no hedge, 10bp per side) the mechanic returns +19.6% against -44.6% for holding the same basket, at a -39.9% drawdown against -67.8%.

Placebo for the best cell is -39.8 +/- 7.8bp, so the edge is 6.2 sigma clear. Costs 10bp per side plus real funding.

What we would do with it: Do not ship as a product. The value here is the negative result: a high win rate measurably hurts, and that applies to any strategy that takes profit early and does not cut losses. Before returning to the positive cell it needs a second regime and a universe with no gaps.

Tested: 2026-07 · v1.0 · 16 liquid majors, hourly bars 2025-06-29..2026-07-25, 9,384 bars, long only, gross <= 1x via 8 equal slots, 10bp per side plus real funding, held-out window from 2026-06-01

A risk-management filter that uses open interest (OI) change to gate entry. While long-side continuation suffers a negative pooled CAGR of -25% in clean bear markets, applying this as a DD-filter successfully cuts maximum drawdown by 2x to 3x across 10 out of 10 backtested assets and beats buy-and-hold on Sharpe ratio.

No regime breakdown was measured, so a comparable TT score is not computed: the numbers above are per coin, not per regime.

What we would do with it: Use it only as a risk filter: it does not make money, it stops you buying strength while the regime is red. As a standalone long trigger in a clean bear market it returns −25% a year.

Tested: 2026-07 · v1.0 · BTC and ETH open-interest archive, 1-day forward returns, pooled and per-coin

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A close above the last confirmed swing high opens a long, a close below the last confirmed swing low opens a short; the position leaves on a 10-day channel exit. Swings are published at their confirmation bar, so nothing in the rule knows a price that had not printed yet.

Tested: 2026-07 · v0.1.0 · 10 USD-M perp majors on daily bars, 2020-09 to 2026-07, 0.1% per side plus funding accrued daily, equal 1/10 sleeves, one position per symbol, long and short

Кулламагги — Episodic Pivot on the panel engine. Window 365d: -42.14% at 71.7% drawdown, 151 trades, 6.0% winners.

• Window 365d: -42.14% at 71.7% drawdown, 151 trades, 6.0% winners.
• Entry: impulsePct4h >= 10, volSurge >= 1, rvol >= 3, perf3m <= 30, aboveMa20 = 1, regimeRiskOn = 1.
• Exit: стоп 1 ADR, трейл по MA20. Position 15% of the account.
• Trigger at bar close, fill at the next open; costs charged on both sides.
• Without the best three trades: -83.40%.
• Fingerprint: input 974d7ad1b1174bc3 → result 828fcfedafbb2161; method repo-e2667d2285de6fbd.

2026-08 · v2 · окно 365d, движок панели, издержки с обеих сторон, доля на сделку 15%

Model-card status is derived at refresh time; it is never a standalone trading instruction.

• Method: closed UTC daily candles with a 14-day cross-sectional horizon.
• Current gates: regime_edge_concentration.
• Positive OOS edge concentration: 60.95% by regime, 49.54% by episode; limit 60%.

2026-08-09 · vcross-sectional-ranker-v0 · held-out out-of-sample evaluation, 14-day cross-sectional horizon

A liquidated position is sold because margin ran out, not because anyone decided the asset was worth less, so a cascade should push price past what information justifies and then come back. Tested on 1.37 million liquidation events across BTC, ETH and SOL over 392 days, that reversal is measurably there and decays with horizon exactly as the hypothesis predicts, and it is worth 0.2 to 5 basis points against a 20 basis point round trip. It is rejected on magnitude, not on absence.

• Against a side-matched placebo — the same trades placed at random times — 17 of 216 cells clear two standard deviations, against roughly 5 expected from noise.
• The significant cells cluster at the shortest horizon and vanish by 24 hours: 12 of 54 cells at 15 minutes, 4 at one hour, 1 at four hours, 0 at 24 hours. That decay is the signature of a genuine micro-reversion.
• Median gross edge across all 216 cells is +0.4bp; the best horizons run +0.2bp to +5.4bp. The cost line is 20bp, so the gap is a factor of 4 to 10, not a few percent.
• Ten cells did clear the cost line, all short-side, all at a 24-hour hold — the horizon where the effect has already vanished. Against a short-only placebo every one sits inside a single standard deviation, and ETH runs the other way. Their profit is shorting a falling market, not a trigger.
• Direction is not consistent across assets at the tradeable horizons: the short side on BTC grosses +7.4bp while the identical construction on ETH grosses -2.1bp.
• A look-ahead was found and removed mid-study: defining exhaustion as 'the next bar is smaller' let the trigger read a liquidation total that does not exist yet at the entry it triggers. Before the fix the gross edge appeared to grow with horizon up to +20.9bp; after it, that growth disappears entirely.

2026-07 · v1.0 · CryptoHFTData liquidations, binance_futures BTC/ETH/SOL, 2025-06-29..2026-07-25, 392 days with no gaps, 1.37M events on 15-minute bars