Crypto market regime index — risk-on / risk-off
The Market Regime Index is a single risk-on/off read on the whole top-cap market: how broad the uptrend is (share of coins above their 200-day average) combined with market momentum. Read it by the sign: above zero the market is bullish: risk-on, below zero it is dangerous, risk-off. The desk names a verdict once the index passes ±0.5; in between it is a transition zone. It reads 99/100 today (risk-on, broad momentum regime). It is a regime classifier, not a reversal caller. It is long in trends and out in bears, and it is verified across the full 2020–2026 cycle.
Source: Binance spot daily klines; breadth + momentum composite, z-scored. History 2019-08-23 → 2026-08-24.
- Correlation of the index with the next 30-day equal-weight basket return: +0.18 (n≈2,100 daily obs), modest but consistent.
- Conditional forward distribution: the top tercile of regime readings is followed by a median +0.2% over 30 days (up 51% of the time), while the bottom tercile ran a median −6.1% (up only 38%). The edge is avoiding the downside, not calling tops.
- Regime-dependent by design: strongest in trending phases (2021, 2023), it inverts at turning points (2022, 2026). The signature of a momentum measure.
How it compares — and why it's different
Plenty of crypto "market mood" gauges exist. Almost none are transparent about their method, backtested across a full cycle, or honest about where they fail.
| ? | Market Regime? | Fear & Greed? | Glassnode / Santiment? | Altcoin Season Index? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| What it measures | breadth + momentum regime | sentiment composite | on-chain named metrics | alts vs BTC |
| $0 by promo, no key | ✓ | ✓ | ✗ paid | ✓ |
| Method published | ✓ | ✗ hidden weights | partial | ✓ |
| Multi-cycle backtest passport | ✓ 2020–26 | ✗ | rarely | ✗ |
| Publishes the triggers it rejected | ✓ the lab | ✗ | ✗ | ✗ |
| Honest framing (no "returns X%") | ✓ | — | mixed | — |
How to read a row → Method published: Market Regime ✓ · Fear & Greed ✗ hidden weights: our index shows its full formula, while Fear & Greed keeps its weighting secret, read across a row to compare all four gauges on that one property.
- Transparent. Built from raw Binance data with a published formula — no black box, fully reproducible.
- A verification passport. We publish the correlation, the conditional 30-day forward distribution, and the exact regimes where it inverts: and, in the lab, every trigger we tested and threw out. Almost no one shows their failures.
- Multi-cycle validated (2020–2026) — not one lucky window.
- Descriptive honesty. A regime lens, never a return promise — so it doesn't die on the first miss.
How to read it
▲ High (risk-on)
Most of the market is above its 200-day trend with positive momentum. A broad risk-on regime. Historically the top tercile has led the strongest 30-day forward returns. But it runs hot at tops: the index is long right into the turn.
▼ Low (risk-off)
Breadth has collapsed and momentum is negative, capital is retreating. The bottom tercile has had weak/negative forward returns. It keeps you out of the worst drawdowns, but it flips late at the bottom.
Where it breaks: at the turn. Regime is built on trailing breadth and momentum, so it describes the state the market is already in and confirms a flip after it has begun. It will be high into a top and low into a bottom. Use it to size and to gate the selection indicators, never as the entry itself. It is also blunt in a narrow tape, where a handful of large caps can hold the score up while most of the market has already rolled over.
FAQ
The TT desk thoughts
Every contrarian trigger we tested on the full cycle: funding as a top-caller, volatility squeezes, stablecoin dry powder, came back null or backwards. The one robust pattern in crypto is persistence: broad, trending, leveraged markets keep going until they don't. So we ship this as a regime lens, not a timing tool. It tells you which weather you're in, and it will be wrong at the exact turn. See the full passport and the triggers we rejected in the lab.